Introduction
In April, the Samarkand Climate Summit, hosted by the President of Uzbekistan, gathered top global officials — including the UN Secretary-General, the EU Commission President, international investors, and environmental ministers.
On the surface, it looked like a discussion about climate policy.
But beneath the green narrative, something much bigger was happening:
The European Union was redrawing Central Asia’s geopolitical map to bypass Russia.
Turkey, notably, was neither invited nor represented at this summit — not even as an observer.
That absence spoke volumes about how power is shifting in Eurasia.
The European Union’s Strategic Move: Redrawing the Middle Corridor
The EU is working on a long-term plan to reduce its dependence on Russian energy and raw materials by creating a new trade and logistics route known as the Middle Corridor.
This emerging route connects:
China – Kazakhstan – Azerbaijan – Georgia – Turkey – Bulgaria
The idea is to bypass Russia and Belarus entirely, allowing the EU to secure direct access to Central Asia’s vast mineral and energy resources.
At the summit, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a €12 billion investment package for Central Asian nations.
Breakdown of the EU Investment Package:
- €2.5 billion → Mining and extraction of critical minerals
- €3 billion → Transportation and logistics infrastructure
- €6.4 billion → Water, energy, and environmental projects
- €100 million → Digital infrastructure and internet connectivity
While this appears to be development aid, in reality, it’s a strategic blueprint to reshape global supply lines and influence.
The Hidden Agenda: Cyprus, Israel, and Turkey’s Weakening Position
Behind closed doors, the summit also touched on Cyprus, Israel, and the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The EU demanded that participating Central Asian states recognize the Greek Cypriot government as the island’s sole legitimate authority.
Following this pressure, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan appointed ambassadors to the Republic of Cyprus — effectively sidelining Northern Cyprus and weakening Turkey’s diplomatic leverage.
Meanwhile, Israel has expanded its influence in both Syria and Cyprus, buying real estate and strengthening its regional position as Turkey remains focused on Syria.
As a result, Turkey has lost strategic ground in two key areas — the Eastern Mediterranean and Central Asia.
Winners: Which Countries and Sectors Stand to Gain
While some nations are being pushed out of the geopolitical game, others are emerging as clear winners.
The EU’s new focus on Central Asia is creating massive opportunities for energy, logistics, and mining industries in the region.
Winning Countries
- Kazakhstan – A central hub of the Middle Corridor with rich mineral reserves
- Uzbekistan – Host of the summit and new magnet for EU funds
- Azerbaijan – Key bridge for energy and trade routes
- Georgia & Bulgaria – Europe’s new eastern entry points
- EU Member States – Diversifying supply chains and reducing reliance on Russia
Winning Sectors
| Sector | Why It Wins | Key Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Mining & Critical Minerals | EU demand for lithium, copper, and rare elements is surging | Central Asia Metals (KZ), Almalyk Mining (UZ) |
| Energy & Renewables | Billions in EU green transition funds | KazMunayGas, regional hydro and solar projects |
| Transportation & Logistics | Infrastructure boom via Middle Corridor | TRACECA, Trans-Caspian corridor |
| Digital Infrastructure | EU earmarked €100 million for digital connectivity | Fiber optic networks, telecom operators |
| Construction & Engineering | Major road, port, and pipeline projects | Turkish contractors (Cengiz, Kalyon, Kolin) |
Companies operating in these sectors could see stock value growth, new partnerships, and foreign investment inflows.
Funds and ETFs focused on energy transition, critical minerals, or infrastructure growth may also benefit.
Losers: Who’s Losing Power and Profit
Every shift in global trade routes creates winners — and losers.
In this case, Russia, Belarus, and even Poland are on the losing side.
❌ Russia
- Faces a 30% decline in logistics and transit revenue
- Loses gas and oil market share in Europe (Gazprom, Rosneft, Transneft hit hardest)
- Mining giants like Norilsk Nickel, Rusal, and Alrosa lose export channels
- Trans-Siberian Railway routes become underused
❌ Belarus
- Completely excluded from the Middle Corridor
- Potash and fertilizer exports — key to its economy — are collapsing
- Company most affected: Belaruskali, one of the world’s top potash producers
- Estimated $1.5 billion annual loss in transit and export revenue
❌ Poland
- The new corridor bypasses Polish routes through Russia and Belarus
- Ports like Gdansk and Gdynia will lose transit traffic
- Rail cargo operator PKP Cargo faces major revenue pressure
The Sectoral Fallout
| Sector | Affected Countries | Why It Suffers |
|---|---|---|
| Oil & Gas | Russia, Belarus | EU’s energy independence policy reduces demand |
| Rail & Freight Transport | Russia, Belarus, Poland | The new corridor avoids their networks |
| Mining (Critical Minerals) | Russia | EU now sources directly from Central Asia |
| Petrochemicals & Fertilizers | Belarus | Sanctions + loss of logistics routes |
| Insurance & Trade Finance | Russia, Poland | Reduced cross-border trade volume |
Where Does Turkey Stand?
Geographically, Turkey sits at the very center of the new Middle Corridor — yet politically, it’s absent from the table.
Despite serving as a crucial transit hub, Turkey’s exclusion from the Samarkand Summit shows that its strategic potential isn’t translating into economic gain.
Unless Ankara recalibrates its diplomacy toward Cyprus, Israel, and Central Asia, it risks being a bridge without influence — a passageway others use but don’t empower.
Conclusion: The New Global Resource Game
The Samarkand Climate Summit was not really about climate — it was about control over the next century’s trade routes, energy, and minerals.
The EU’s €12 billion Central Asia plan is more than a development project; it’s a geopolitical repositioning to weaken Russia and secure Europe’s resource future.
The Bottom Line:
- 🟢 Winners: Central Asia, the EU, mining and logistics industries
- 🔴 Losers: Russia, Belarus, Poland, and their energy sectors
- 🟡 Turkey: Strategically central, but politically sidelined
The world is watching a new energy and mineral war unfold — not with weapons, but with infrastructure, funding, and diplomacy.
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